Brent Crude Tops $100 as Middle East Strikes Hit Tanker Traffic

Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July, as attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure intensified across the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, advanced toward $95. The U.S. military sank four Iranian tankers in the Gulf of Oman and destroyed a fifth near Kharg Island, while Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on a 400,000-barrel-a-day Saudi refinery.

Morgan Stanley told clients that higher oil and rates remain the main near-term risks to equities, noting that strategic petroleum reserves have already been substantially drawn down. Commodities strategist Martijn Rats has forecast Brent averaging $100 in the fourth quarter, pointing to roughly 190 million barrels of floating storage drained since mid-July and a further 38 million barrel decline in onshore inventories. Goldman Sachs estimates every $10 increase in oil adds about 0.2 percentage points to headline inflation.

Prediction markets are pricing an awkward split. Polymarket traders put a 74% chance on U.S.-Iran fighting pausing by Sept. 30, yet give only a 2% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal this month. A ceasefire could knock crude lower even as the physical supply disruption behind the rally persists. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF closed Tuesday within a dollar of its 52-week high after leading all 11 sector funds in August.