Futures Open the Week Higher as Oil Falls and Yields Hold Above 5%

U.S. equity futures moved higher Monday, with Dow and S&P 500 contracts each up about 0.7% and Nasdaq-100 futures gaining roughly 1%. Falling oil prices and anticipation of a Trump-Xi summit carried the tone, following a week in which the Federal Reserve lifted its target range to 3.75%-4.00% in its first increase since 2023.

Rates remain the dominant variable. The 10-year Treasury yield has broken above 5% for the first time since 2023, and while the committee penciled in one more increase for 2026, fed funds futures were last pricing roughly 42% odds of two, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The repricing has already worked through dividend-heavy sectors, with telecom and other leveraged payers marked lower last week.

Equity investors have so far absorbed a higher-for-longer path without broad de-risking, supported by the strength of corporate earnings and continued artificial intelligence capital spending. Volatility measures eased into the open and the macro calendar for the week is comparatively light, leaving positioning and the summit headlines as the near-term drivers.