Kalshi Pushes Into Stock Trading, Putting Robinhood on the Defensive

Prediction market operator Kalshi said it intends to move into US stock trading, filing for regulatory approval to offer single-stock perpetual futures contracts. The announcement lands directly in the territory Robinhood has spent the past two years building out, and it arrived as HOOD shares slid roughly 10% from their yearly high. The stock closed near $112.57 on Friday against a prior close of $113.33.

The competitive threat is narrower than the headline suggests, but it targets the fastest-growing part of Robinhood's mix. Tokenized equity volume tracked by Binance Research jumped to $7.9 billion in August, with bStocks and Robinhood together accounting for roughly 88% of the total. Robinhood's crypto volume reached $17.5 billion in August, up 61% from July though still down 38% year over year.

For shareholders, the question is whether Kalshi can convert regulatory approval into distribution. Perpetual futures on single names are a different product from commission-free equities, and approval timelines are uncertain. What has changed is the assumption that Robinhood's lead in retail derivatives and prediction markets is uncontested.