Midterm Elections Meet 4.9% Yields as Wall Street Braces for a Busy Week

U.S. voters head to the polls for the midterm elections today as the 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.91% and the 2-year around 4.60%. Options markets are pricing a move of about 0.9% for the S&P 500 today and 1.85% by Friday.

Credit conditions are also tightening, with the high-yield spread over Treasuries at 339 basis points, near an 18-month high. Central banks abroad are turning hawkish: Australia's central bank raised rates by 25 basis points, and the Bank of England is expected to follow with a hike on Thursday.

The week also brings the Treasury's quarterly refunding on Wednesday and the October jobs report on Friday, both likely to shape rate expectations for rate-sensitive holdings such as banks, REITs and consumer names.