Traders Bet on Fed Hold This Week, Then About 71% Odds of a December Hike

Markets expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at its meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday. Kalshi puts the odds of a hold at 92%.

Looking further out, CME FedWatch shows about 71% odds of a quarter-point rate increase in December. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.999% and the 30-year at 5.312%, as oil near $116 Brent fueled inflation worries.

The Fed's statement and press conference will be scrutinized for any signal on hikes, with Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon also reporting earnings the same week.