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THE DAILY PULSE


Nike Set to Leave the S&P 100 on September 21 After a 40% Decline
Nike will be removed from the S&P 100 effective September 21 following a roughly 40% decline in the share price this year. The company retains its place in the broader S&P 500, so the change is a market-capitalization ranking adjustment rather than an index exit. The practical effect is narrower: funds tracking the large-cap 100 will sell, while S&P 500 trackers are unaffected. The operational picture is in transition. Jane Ewing, a 14-year Walmart veteran, began as chief com
Sep 141 min read


Fuel Spike Widens the Gap Between Delta and American
Crude above $108 puts renewed pressure on carriers that built 2026 plans around cheaper fuel. American Airlines guided to roughly $4 a gallon for jet fuel, with Delta and United modeling closer to $4.30 for the second quarter. Prices well above those assumptions compress margins directly, since fuel represents roughly 25% to 30% of operating expense for most carriers according to the International Air Transport Association. The two airlines have responded very differently thi
Sep 141 min read


Fed Heads Into Wednesday's Decision With a Hike Priced Near 83%
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rate decision due September 16 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern and a press conference to follow at 2:30. The current target range is 3.50% to 3.75%, held since December 2025. Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point increase to 3.75% to 4.00% sit near 83%, a level reached after Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 and a solid August employment report. The August consumer price index gave both
Sep 141 min read


AI Infrastructure Names Slide After Amodei Calls for a Development Slowdown
Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei published a lengthy essay on X calling for a slower pace of advancement in artificial intelligence, arguing that safety work needs time to catch up with gains in model capability and that stronger checks should be built around advanced systems. OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman voiced support for the position, and xAI's Elon Musk said Amodei was right. The unusual alignment among rival labs is what gave the message market weight. The sel
Sep 141 min read


Brent Tops $108 After Hormuz Vessel Strike and Saudi Pipeline Shutdown
Brent crude climbed above $108 a barrel Monday morning after a merchant vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one crew member. October and November contracts each gained more than 3%, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $103. The move extends a rally of almost 9% last week and reverses Friday's pullback, when talk of Iran-Gulf negotiations in Oman briefly pulled Brent back toward $104. The second catalyst was infrastructure rather than shipping. Saudi Arabi
Sep 141 min read


MGM's Special Committee Still Weighing Barry Diller's $48.30-a-Share Offer
MGM Resorts remains in play. The board's special committee of independent directors continues to evaluate People Inc.'s proposal to acquire all MGM shares it does not already own for $48.30 a share in cash, valuing the company at roughly $18 billion. People Inc., associated with Barry Diller, already holds 26.1% of MGM's outstanding stock and would own just over 50.1% of the equity under the proposal, with other investors holding minority interests. The committee was formed s
Sep 131 min read


Kalshi Pushes Into Stock Trading, Putting Robinhood on the Defensive
Prediction market operator Kalshi said it intends to move into US stock trading, filing for regulatory approval to offer single-stock perpetual futures contracts. The announcement lands directly in the territory Robinhood has spent the past two years building out, and it arrived as HOOD shares slid roughly 10% from their yearly high. The stock closed near $112.57 on Friday against a prior close of $113.33. The competitive threat is narrower than the headline suggests, but it
Sep 131 min read


Record $5.85 Diesel Pushes Fuel Surcharges Through Freight Networks
US diesel reached a record national average of $5.85 a gallon, surpassing the prior high of $5.816 set in June 2022, as the six-month conflict with Iran continues to disrupt global fuel flows. Diesel powers most long-haul freight and parcel delivery, so the increase feeds directly into the cost of moving goods. The arithmetic is unforgiving for carriers. A truck running 125,000 miles a year at 6.5 miles per gallon burns roughly 19,231 gallons. At February prices that was a $7
Sep 131 min read


Super Micro Points to a $60 Billion Order Book and a Cisco-Nvidia Tie-Up
Super Micro Computer reported fiscal 2026 net sales of $39.1 billion, up 78% from the prior year, driven by AI server demand and expansion across data center, enterprise and OEM channels. Management now expects AI-focused systems to make up the bulk of near-term revenue and pointed to an order book of roughly $60 billion. Capacity is the constraint the company is addressing. Super Micro is scaling its new Silicon Valley DCBBS campus and plans to lift monthly manufacturing cap
Sep 131 min read


IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Outlook by 2.5 Million Barrels a Day
The International Energy Agency sharply lowered its global oil demand outlook, now forecasting a contraction of 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 — the largest annual decline since the pandemic year of 2020. The agency attributed the downgrade to higher prices and tighter supply weighing on consumption rather than to any easing in production. The forecast cut landed in a week when prices moved the other way. Brent settled at $104.61 on Friday, down 2.81% on the day but still
Sep 131 min read


Analysts Raise DraftKings Targets as NFL Season Wagering Estimates Climb
DraftKings drew fresh analyst support this week as the 2026 NFL season got underway. Citizens raised its price target to $37 from $36 with an Outperform rating, arguing that prediction markets appear to be expanding total wagering activity rather than cannibalizing traditional sportsbook handle. Bernstein lifted its target to $29 from $27, citing expectations that regulatory treatment of sports-related event contracts will develop along fragmented state and federal lines rath
Sep 121 min read


Silver Slides 2.6% as Rate-Hike Odds Near 90%, Pressuring Miners
Silver fell 2.6% on Friday to roughly $64.90 an ounce as traders raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at next week's meeting to about 90%, up from roughly 70% before the August inflation report. Gold held comparatively firm near $4,386 an ounce, essentially flat on the session but close to a one-month low. The August consumer price index rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% from a year earlier, with core prices up 0.3%, slightly above forecasts. Higher expecte
Sep 121 min read


Morgan Stanley Upgrades Robinhood to Overweight With a $150 Target
Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood Markets to Overweight with a $150 price target, pointing to growth engines the firm expects to build out through 2028 across retirement accounts, banking, credit cards, advisory services and prediction markets. The call adds to a cluster of recent target increases, with Citizens moving to $165 from $155 and Mizuho to $140 from $130. The upgrades follow an August business update in which Robinhood reported total platform assets of $384 billion
Sep 121 min read


AI Server Stocks Rally as Oracle Results Lift Super Micro 7%
Super Micro Computer closed up 7.3% on Friday, leading a broad advance in AI infrastructure names that also carried Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise higher. The move followed Oracle's fiscal first-quarter report, released after Thursday's close, which beat expectations on the strength of its AI cloud business and sent Oracle shares up more than 4% in after-hours trading. Oracle is a significant buyer of AI server capacity, and its results were read as a signal
Sep 121 min read


Crude Slips Below $100 on Iran-Gulf Talks, Easing Airline Fuel Costs
Crude oil retreated sharply on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate falling about 2.4% to roughly $100 a barrel and Brent dropping close to 3% to around $104. The move came after Iranian state media reported that talks with Gulf states are planned in Oman, easing the risk premium that had built up during a week of escalating regional tensions. Supply and demand forecasts added to the downward pressure. The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2027 domestic crude
Sep 121 min read


Robinhood Partners With Crypto.com to Widen Prediction Markets Push
Robinhood announced a strategic partnership with Crypto.com and its prediction markets platform, OG.com, expanding the brokerage's event-contract offering and giving it access to another federally regulated trading venue. The timing places the expanded product ahead of the U.S. football season and the November midterm elections, two of the highest-volume periods for event contracts. Prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's faster-growing revenue lines, sitting alongs
Sep 111 min read


UBS Trims Delta Target to $99 as Airlines Navigate Higher Fuel
UBS maintained its Buy rating on Delta Air Lines Thursday while cutting its price target to $99 from $112, citing the cost environment facing carriers as crude prices climb. Delta closed the session at $78.13 on the NYSE, down 0.8% on the day. The revision comes as jet fuel costs move with a crude complex that has pushed higher on Middle East supply disruptions, compressing the margin advantage that premium-heavy carriers built through the first half of the year. Separately,
Sep 111 min read


Kroger Reports Q2 With New Management's Turnaround Under Review
Kroger reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results before the opening bell Friday, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Analysts had projected revenue of roughly $34.68 billion, a 2.2% increase from the prior-year period, and adjusted earnings of $1.05 per share, about 1% above last year. The most closely watched line is identical sales excluding fuel, which management had guided toward roughly 1% for the quarter. For the full year, Kroger has maintained gu
Sep 111 min read


Copper Tariff Delay Reverses Record Rally, Freeport Sinks 8%
Copper stocks sold off sharply Thursday after Washington postponed its decision on tariffs for refined copper, removing the catalyst that had driven the metal to record highs earlier in the week. Freeport-McMoRan fell roughly 8% to $70.43, while Teck Resources and Southern Copper each dropped about 7%. The reversal came just days after LME three-month copper touched an intraday all-time high of $14,694 per ton on September 8, surpassing the prior record of $14,527.50 set in J
Sep 111 min read


August CPI Lands at 3.4%, Pushing Fed Hike Odds Below 50%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released August consumer price data Friday morning, showing headline inflation up 3.4% from a year earlier and 0.1% on the month. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.2% month over month for a 2.5% annual rate. Both readings landed close to consensus forecasts, and shelter remained the largest single monthly contributor. The print matters more than usual because it is the last inflation reading the Federal Open Market Committee wil
Sep 111 min read
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